Verification: Predicted 55/85. Actual 63/83

It appears that the night was too cloudy to drop into the 50s. Light southerly winds probably did nothing to cool us off. The daily high was close to the predicted high.

June Monsoon

An extended period of intermittent showers and thunderstorms is expected to run from Friday to Tuesday. The line of storms triggering a tornado watch for Central Nebraska will probably grow into a blob of storms that weakens over southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. We may get grazed tomorrow midday, but I think it will be mostly high cloudiness.

Temperatures tomorrow will hit 90 F as isolated storms begin over the northwest half of Illinois.

NAM and GFS are at odds over how much rain we will see Friday and Saturday. GFS predicts nearly continual rain Friday and Saturday, with a couple of periods of thunderstorms. NAM pulls what looks like a dying bow echo through Friday forenoon, then some moderate rain will fall Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday while people along a line from Hannibal MO to Chicago IL and Bay City, MI will see 36 hours of training showers and thunderstorms.

EDIT: GFS’ prediction of widespread, long-duration rain and thunderstorms over the northern half of Indiana is more consistent with its estimate of available moisture than NAM’s. That’s not good news, since GFS suggests that 3-7 inches will fall over Greater Lafayette by 8 am Sunday while NAM expects only 1-2 inches, with higher values to the north (mostly 2-4 inches over the Chicago metro). The Canadian expects 4-5 inches, with some 6+ inches over Route 24 west of Logansport. The UKMET says 1-2 inches for us and 2-3 inches for Hoosiers north of US 24. The Hi-Res Euro dumps 3-4 inches, with values increasing as you go west.

So, for tonight: partly cloudy, low 63. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, slight chance of showers across the Illinois line, highs near 90. Friday-Sunday will see lengthy periods of rain and thunderstorms, but with occasional breaks. Highs will be 80-85 and lows will be around 65.

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